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Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $29.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.4KEvent: LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs
53.0¢
FURIA Esports
97.0¢
RED Canids
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution16Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$41.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA Esports · $1.5K net·4 wallets·$1.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA Esports$13.8K@ 69¢·Shifters

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

FURIA Esports pressure: $1.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.8K
6h
+$18.4K
tracked
$41.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: FURIA Esports · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 81% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FURIA Esports or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports wins 2 or more games than RED Canids in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "RED Canids".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Semifinal match between FURIA Esports and RED Canids in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports wins 2 or more games than RED Canids in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "RED Canids". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TLking2 linked markets · $22.9K gross
Mrfattytiger2 linked markets · $16.2K gross
ColinHe2 linked markets · $15.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: FURIA Esports UP 10.5pp · near-book depth $6 → $23 · 53s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA Esports; negative values favor RED Canids. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA Esports · $1.8K
6hFURIA Esports · $18.4K
24hFURIA Esports · $25.0K

FURIA Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA Esports price. RED Canids fills are converted to the complementary FURIA Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.0¢
VWAP 24h68.4¢▼ below by 15.4pp
VWAP 7d68.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.2K
75¢
$10
70¢
$36
65¢
$35.5K
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$202
50¢
← now
$1.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFURIA Esports$13.8K@ 69.0¢
Shifters0xe376…5149
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ShiftersFURIA Esports$13.8K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.