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Texas vs. Tennessee

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 22 minutesLiquidity: $653.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $229.3KEvent: Texas vs. Tennessee
65.5¢
Texas
34.5¢
Tennessee
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$154.0K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas$50.0K@ 66¢·Berniepaidoff

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Texas pressure: $5.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.9K
6h
+$45.4K
tracked
$154.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Tennessee · $4.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 51

Since latest whale follow through: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Texas or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Tennessee" if Tennessee win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Texas and Tennessee, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game. This market will resolve to "Tennessee" if Tennessee win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $53.1K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $33.0K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $32.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Texas@ 66.0¢1m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas@ 66.0¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas@ 67.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Texas; negative values favor Tennessee. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexas · $5.9K
6hTexas · $45.4K
24hTexas · $52.8K

Texas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Texas price. Tennessee fills are converted to the complementary Texas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.5¢
VWAP 24h65.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d65.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Texas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$149.2K
60¢
$4.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexas$29.7K@ 66.0¢
martingaleking0x52f5…5e8a
🐋—9 minutes ago
BUYTennessee$21.0K@ 34.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYTexas$50.0K@ 66.2¢
Berniepaidoff0xc506…e987
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTennessee$11.2K@ 35.0¢
bigbankmoney0x3f76…436a
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BerniepaidoffTexas$50.0K
BUY VWAP 66.2¢·1 fill
martingalekingTexas$29.7K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0xbc43…96d3Tennessee$21.0K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
bigbankmoneyTennessee$11.2K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.