PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Sports→Settlement: Natus VincereLiquidity: $562.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $889.8KEvent: Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
100.0¢
Natus Vincere payout
0.0¢
Xtreme Gaming payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:319 trades$315.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Xtreme Gaming · $1.7K net·25 wallets·$51.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$15.7K@ 68¢·0xf3ce…a57a

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Natus Vincere. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-26 20:50 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Xtreme Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Semifinal match between Natus Vincere and Xtreme Gaming in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $36.0K gross
darkmarketmaker2 linked markets · $25.5K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $24.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Natus Vincere@ 89.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.3pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Xtreme Gaming DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $48 → $125 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Xtreme Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hXtreme Gaming · $13.2K
6hNatus Vincere · $44.9K
24hNatus Vincere · $44.9K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Xtreme Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h71.7¢▲ above by 28.3pp
VWAP 7d71.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$62.8K
90¢
$26.3K
85¢
$7.8K
80¢
$3.6K
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$704
65¢
$64.9K
60¢
$47.1K
55¢
$67.2K
50¢
$20.4K
45¢
$5.0K
40¢
$7.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$13.7K@ 99.9¢0x3b63…4acd🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$15.7K@ 68.0¢0xf3ce…a57a🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$740.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
100.0¢$341.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?
48.5¢$1.6Mpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hangzhou Open: Coleman Wong vs Adolfo Vallejo
100.0¢$638.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will England win on 2026-09-26?
24.5¢$454.1Kpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$427.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
51.5¢$426.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf3ce…a57aNatus Vincere$15.7K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill
Sunshine.SmileNatus Vincere$14.7K
BUY VWAP 65.1¢·3 fills
0x3b63…4acdNatus Vincere$13.7K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
quavooXtreme Gaming$12.3K
BUY VWAP 43.5¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.