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Iowa vs. Michigan: O/U 38.5

● quote 26s ago
Sports→Closes: 19 minutesLiquidity: $90.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $114.5KEvent: Iowa vs. Michigan
54.5¢
Over
45.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$49.0K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $12.3K net·2 wallets·$12.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$10.3K@ 51¢·0x7b47…d615

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Under SETUP
What the tape says

Under pressure: $4.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.3K
6h
−$19.5K
tracked
$49.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: Under · $12.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 61

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Iowa and Michigan combine to score 39 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 39, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Iowa and Michigan combine to score 39 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 39, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $16.5K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $2.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $4.3K
6hUnder · $19.5K
24hUnder · $19.6K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d52.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$51.6K
45¢
$4.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$10.3K@ 51.0¢0x7b47…d615🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7b47…d615Over$10.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardUnder$10.3K
BUY VWAP 47.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.