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Oregon vs. USC

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $96.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $636.9KEvent: Oregon vs. USC
54.5¢
Oregon
45.5¢
USC
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:106 trades$327.6K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Oregon · $43.2K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$113.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOregon$20.8K@ 63¢·primm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Oregon SETUP
What the tape says

Oregon pressure: $34.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$34.4K
6h
+$29.3K
tracked
$327.6K

12 verified profitable wallets: Oregon · $43.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 55

Since latest market sweep: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Oregon or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game.

•This market will resolve to "USC" if USC win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Oregon and USC, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game. This market will resolve to "USC" if USC win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $80.0K gross
primm2 linked markets · $38.6K gross
KaneAnalytics2 linked markets · $36.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY USC@ 43.0¢43m ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Oregon@ 64.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Oregon DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $65.1K → $1.3K · 21s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Oregon; negative values favor USC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOregon · $34.4K
6hOregon · $29.3K
24hOregon · $42.5K

Oregon price VWAP

Volume-weighted Oregon price. USC fills are converted to the complementary Oregon probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h63.2¢▼ below by 8.7pp
VWAP 7d63.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Oregon price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$44.4K
65¢
$54.3K
60¢
$178.1K
55¢
$47.7K
50¢
← now
$10.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUSC$16.7K@ 45.0¢
donaldbush0x66b2…0fdf
🐋—2 minutes ago
SELLOregon$11.0K@ 55.0¢
donaldbush0x66b2…0fdf
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYOregon$13.7K@ 55.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYOregon$16.5K@ 71.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYOregon$16.5K@ 71.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYOregon$14.0K@ 70.0¢
donaldbush0x66b2…0fdf
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYOregon$14.4K@ 65.0¢
User12443220xe558…dcd2
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYOregon$18.9K@ 63.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUSC$14.7K@ 37.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUSC$14.8K@ 37.0¢
Soarin220x84db…aeeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYOregon$20.8K@ 63.0¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KaneAnalyticsOregon$33.0K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardOregon$28.4K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·5 fills
fkcvffcjtOregon$23.1K
BUY VWAP 63.4¢·2 fills
primmOregon$20.8K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
donaldbushUSC$16.7K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026USC$15.5K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardUSC$15.2K
BUY VWAP 36.2¢·5 fills
Soarin22USC$14.8K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
Sassy-BucketUSC$14.7K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
User1244322Oregon$14.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.