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Spread: Air Force (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 21 minutesLiquidity: $135.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.6KEvent: Navy vs. Air Force
53.5¢
Air Force
46.5¢
Navy
9.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$30.8K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Air Force · $21.3K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$21.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAir Force$21.3K@ 53¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Air Force pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.9K
6h
+$24.2K
tracked
$30.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Air Force · $21.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
9.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 9.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Air Force or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Air Force" if Air Force win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Navy".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Air Force" if Air Force win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Navy". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $92.7K gross
Mastermoney2 linked markets · $20.0K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $686 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Air Force; negative values favor Navy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAir Force · $2.9K
6hAir Force · $24.2K
24hAir Force · $26.2K

Air Force price VWAP

Volume-weighted Air Force price. Navy fills are converted to the complementary Air Force probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Air Force price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$30.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAir Force$21.3K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempAir Force$21.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.