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Navy vs. Air Force: O/U 45.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 24 minutesLiquidity: $46.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.3KEvent: Navy vs. Air Force
37.0¢
Over
63.0¢
Under
12.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$46.6K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 57s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $18.5K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$18.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$20.6K@ 52¢·liquiditycrisis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Over pressure: $5.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.0K
6h
+$43.4K
tracked
$46.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Over · $18.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
12.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 87% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: -8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 12.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Over or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Navy and Air Force combine to score 46 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 46, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Navy and Air Force combine to score 46 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 46, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $92.7K gross
Mastermoney2 linked markets · $20.0K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $686 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Over DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $19 → $146 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $5.0K
6hOver · $43.4K
24hOver · $41.9K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.0¢
VWAP 24h51.8¢▼ below by 14.8pp
VWAP 7d51.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$46.5K
45¢
$42
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$20.6K@ 52.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver$13.6K@ 52.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

liquiditycrisisOver$20.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xb4f9…c9a7Over$18.6K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.