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St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $166.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $474.6KEvent: St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong
11.5¢
Andrea Guerrieri
88.5¢
Jesper de Jong
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:135 trades$140.7K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jesper de Jong · $6.5K net·8 wallets·$26.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJesper de Jong$9.0K@ 40¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Andrea Guerrieri pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.2K
6h
−$2.0K
tracked
$140.7K

8 verified profitable wallets: Jesper de Jong · $6.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 82% · priority 48

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Andrea Guerrieri or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Guerrieri and Jesper de Jong in the St. Tropez, originally scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Jesper de Jong. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de Jong' if Jesper de Jong advances against Andrea Guerrieri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Jesper de Jong UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $829 → $22.0K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Andrea Guerrieri; negative values favor Jesper de Jong. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrea Guerrieri · $2.2K
6hJesper de Jong · $2.0K
24hJesper de Jong · $2.0K

Andrea Guerrieri price VWAP

Volume-weighted Andrea Guerrieri price. Jesper de Jong fills are converted to the complementary Andrea Guerrieri probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current11.5¢
VWAP 24h57.8¢▼ below by 46.3pp
VWAP 7d57.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Andrea Guerrieri price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$18.8K
85¢
$5.7K
80¢
$6
75¢
$15.4K
70¢
$6.1K
65¢
$10.7K
60¢
$9.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$5.4K
45¢
$7.6K
40¢
$37.8K
35¢
$14.5K
30¢
$1.7K
25¢
$8.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x20f4…15e1Andrea Guerrieri$12.8K
BUY VWAP 90.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.