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Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Conventus Stellarum - Game 1 Winner

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $416.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $705.8KEvent: Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Conventus Stellarum (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
33.5¢
Team Nemesis payout
66.5¢
Conventus Stellarum payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:262 trades$259.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 13s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Nemesis · $8.9K net·26 wallets·$37.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYConventus Stellarum$30.0K@ 67¢·0xe16d…5e30

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win Game 1 against Conventus Stellarum.

•This market will resolve to "Conventus Stellarum" if Conventus Stellarum win Game 1 against Team Nemesis.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 5 match between Team Nemesis and Conventus Stellarum in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win Game 1 against Conventus Stellarum. This market will resolve to "Conventus Stellarum" if Conventus Stellarum win Game 1 against Team Nemesis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 23, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 0m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 0m ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $63.0K gross
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $27.3K gross
TLking2 linked markets · $23.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Conventus Stellarum1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Conventus Stellarum@ 64.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Conventus Stellarum UP 14.5pp · near-book depth $78 → $194 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Nemesis; negative values favor Conventus Stellarum. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Nemesis · $26.4K
6hConventus Stellarum · $29.4K
24hConventus Stellarum · $29.4K

Team Nemesis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Nemesis price. Conventus Stellarum fills are converted to the complementary Team Nemesis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h20.7¢▲ above by 12.8pp
VWAP 7d20.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Nemesis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$39.0K
30¢
← now
$78.6K
25¢
$28.7K
20¢
$9.1K
15¢
$5.7K
10¢
$11.2K
5¢
$5.2K
0¢
$82.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLConventus Stellarum$16.9K@ 99.9¢
TLking0x74b7…8b0b
🐋—31 minutes ago
SELLConventus Stellarum$10.2K@ 99.9¢
hdttfav0x419d…ac3c
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYConventus Stellarum$10.9K@ 65.9¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYConventus Stellarum$30.0K@ 67.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Conventus Stellarum$34.0K
BUY VWAP 66.6¢·4 fills
Sunshine.SmileConventus Stellarum$13.1K
BUY VWAP 65.7¢·2 fills
ribalkaConventus Stellarum$11.6K
BUY VWAP 70.5¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.