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Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

● quote 23s ago
Sports→Closes: about 17 hoursLiquidity: $192.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $173.6KEvent: Raiders vs. Saints
25.5¢
Raiders
74.5¢
Saints
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$129.8K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 75%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 92 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSaints$21.1K@ 75¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$129.8K
tracked
$129.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Saints · $29.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 92 minutes old.
  • •Less than 17h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Saints".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Raiders and Saints, scheduled for September 27 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Saints". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Saints@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Saints@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Saints@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Saints@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raiders; negative values favor Saints. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaiders · $0
6hSaints · $129.8K
24hSaints · $129.8K

Raiders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raiders price. Saints fills are converted to the complementary Raiders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.5¢
VWAP 24h25.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d25.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raiders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$129.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSaints$11.3K@ 75.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$18.4K@ 75.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$21.1K@ 75.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$21.1K@ 75.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$21.0K@ 75.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiSaints$89.3K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·7 fills
HomeRunHazardSaints$29.2K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·3 fills
iDARKenjoyerSaints$11.3K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.