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Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Sports→Settlement: St. Louis CardinalsLiquidity: $137.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $134.0KEvent: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
0.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates payout
100.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:64 trades$55.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 914 min agoofficial metadata 880 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:St. Louis Cardinals · $2.1K net·8 wallets·$8.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSt. Louis Cardinals$42.3K@ 61¢·Lakersfan111

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome St. Louis Cardinals. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-24 16:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for September 24 at 12:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1winstreak12 linked markets · $12.7K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $9.0K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $6.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY St. Louis Cardinals@ 62.0¢20h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: St. Louis Cardinals UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $251 → $218 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pittsburgh Pirates; negative values favor St. Louis Cardinals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSt. Louis Cardinals · $2.1K
6hSt. Louis Cardinals · $44.8K
24hSt. Louis Cardinals · $44.8K

Pittsburgh Pirates price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates price. St. Louis Cardinals fills are converted to the complementary Pittsburgh Pirates probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h37.5¢▼ below by 37.5pp
VWAP 7d37.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pittsburgh Pirates price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$6.2K
35¢
$45.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$714
20¢
$0
15¢
$937
10¢
$717
5¢
$657
0¢
← now
$576

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals$42.3K@ 61.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 20 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111St. Louis Cardinals$42.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.