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Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $878.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $752.6KEvent: Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
100.0¢
Team Nemesis
0.1¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets68Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 21 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:300 trades$255.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 45s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $27.5K net·21 wallets·$40.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Nemesis$22.2K@ 100¢·fantasy7788

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $76.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$76.2K
6h
−$121.7K
tracked
$255.9K

21 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $27.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -74.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-25 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Team Nemesis.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Round 1 match between Team Nemesis and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Team Nemesis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 25, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $26.0K gross
0xheavy8882 linked markets · $9.5K gross
xytest2 linked markets · $8.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere30m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp
Latest book event: Team Nemesis UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $47 → $208 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Nemesis; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $76.2K
6hNatus Vincere · $121.7K
24hNatus Vincere · $121.7K

Team Nemesis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Nemesis price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Nemesis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h63.0¢▲ above by 37.0pp
VWAP 7d63.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Team Nemesis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$106.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.3K
75¢
$3.2K
70¢
$5.0K
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$8.7K
45¢
$7.5K
40¢
$16.2K
35¢
$35.1K
30¢
$29.9K
25¢
$12.0K
20¢
$14.9K
15¢
$2.8K
10¢
$95
5¢
$0
0¢
$7.0K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTeam Nemesis$22.2K@ 99.9¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYTeam Nemesis$10.0K@ 45.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—44 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Natus Vincere$23.0K
BUY VWAP 64.5¢·11 fills
fantasy7788Team Nemesis$10.0K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.