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Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5

● quote 42 min ago
Sports→Closes: 22 minutesLiquidity: $2Official 24h Vol: —Event: Navy vs. Air Force
50.0¢
YES
50.0¢
Under
98.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$31.6K tracked50% 🐋source coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 134 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$31.0K@ 98¢·0xf984…3925

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$30.3K
tracked
$31.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
98.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 42 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 134 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 98.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Navy and Air Force, scheduled for October 3 at 12:00 PM ET: Overtime is included if played. As a standalone over/under, the outcomes are "Over" (more than 0.5 passing touchdowns) and "Under" (0.5 or fewer). If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $92.7K gross
Mastermoney2 linked markets · $20.0K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $686 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hUnder · $30.3K
24hUnder · $30.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. Under fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h3.9¢▲ above by 46.1pp
VWAP 7d3.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$632
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$31.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$31.0K@ 98.0¢0xf984…3925🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf984…3925Under$31.0K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.