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San Diego 2: Tristan Boyer vs Timo Legout

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $279.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $438.7KEvent: San Diego 2: Tristan Boyer vs Timo Legout
0.1¢
Tristan Boyer
100.0¢
Timo Legout
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 22 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:273 trades$133.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Timo Legout · $12.7K net·22 wallets(1🐋)·$31.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTimo Legout$11.5K@ 100¢·0xAlikz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Timo Legout pressure: $3.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.8K
6h
+$31.1K
tracked
$133.7K

22 verified profitable wallets: Timo Legout · $12.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -82.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Timo Legout or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-02 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Timo Legout in the San Diego 2, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Timo Legout. This market will resolve to 'Timo Legout' if Timo Legout advances against Tristan Boyer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tristan Boyer2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Tristan Boyer@ 83.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.1pp
Latest book event: Tristan Boyer DOWN 4.2pp · near-book depth $2 → $14 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tristan Boyer; negative values favor Timo Legout. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTimo Legout · $3.8K
6hTristan Boyer · $31.1K
24hTristan Boyer · $31.1K

Tristan Boyer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tristan Boyer price. Timo Legout fills are converted to the complementary Tristan Boyer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h46.1¢▼ below by 46.1pp
VWAP 7d46.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tristan Boyer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$3.4K
90¢
$8.0K
85¢
$393
80¢
$210
75¢
$4.5K
70¢
$11.8K
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$5.5K
55¢
$21.0K
50¢
$31.5K
45¢
$2.7K
40¢
$864
35¢
$173
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.5K
20¢
$2.3K
15¢
$3.8K
10¢
$5.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$25.0K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTimo Legout$11.5K@ 99.9¢
0xAlikz0x2037…473d
🐋—10 minutes ago
BUYTristan Boyer$10.0K@ 57.0¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RunemupTristan Boyer$28.6K
BUY VWAP 52.7¢·3 fills
0xAlikzTimo Legout$11.5K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.