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Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Sports→Settlement: Natus VincereLiquidity: $696.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
0.0¢
Aurora payout
100.0¢
Natus Vincere payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:472 trades$552.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $20.2K net·39 wallets(1🐋)·$94.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$72.9K@ 100¢·LuckyWin

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Natus Vincere. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-26 15:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match between Aurora and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Netrol2 linked markets · $62.6K gross
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $46.0K gross
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $40.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Natus Vincere@ 92.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +23.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Aurora DOWN 4.2pp · near-book depth $336 → $45 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $22.2K
6hNatus Vincere · $187.8K
24hNatus Vincere · $187.8K

Aurora price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Aurora probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h20.3¢▼ below by 20.3pp
VWAP 7d20.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$5
50¢
$0
45¢
$13.3K
40¢
$133.6K
35¢
$37.8K
30¢
$46.8K
25¢
$18.1K
20¢
$39.2K
15¢
$27.1K
10¢
$5.1K
5¢
$5.8K
0¢
← now
$225.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$16.6K@ 99.9¢0xe2d0…7bbf🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLNatus Vincere$13.9K@ 99.9¢
babonski0xa4f0…b287
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLNatus Vincere$15.5K@ 99.9¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$26.4K@ 99.9¢
DotG0xcd36…0f01
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$72.9K@ 99.9¢
LuckyWin0x5922…3388
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$34.8K@ 56.1¢
Netrol0x23c8…f293
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$17.3K@ 59.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuckyWinNatus Vincere$72.9K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
NetrolNatus Vincere$35.9K
BUY VWAP 56.6¢·2 fills
DotGNatus Vincere$26.4K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0xf201…527eAurora$19.9K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Natus Vincere$17.3K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
gxxyyNatus Vincere$15.3K
BUY VWAP 69.4¢·13 fills
pipipi150Natus Vincere$13.4K
BUY VWAP 96.6¢·3 fills
MedoD3PAurora$13.1K
BUY VWAP 30.2¢·4 fills
PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRNatus Vincere$13.0K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·5 fills
0x9e3e…f882Natus Vincere$11.5K
BUY VWAP 72.3¢·12 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.