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UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims)

Sports→Combat SportsSettlement: Francisco PradoLiquidity: $2.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $587.3KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims)
0.0¢
Ismael Bonfim payout
100.0¢
Francisco Prado payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:47 trades$229.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 84 min agoofficial metadata 65 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ismael Bonfim · $8.9K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$14.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIsmael Bonfim$93.3K@ 41¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Francisco Prado. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ismael Bonfim" if Ismael Bonfim is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francisco Prado at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Francisco Prado" if Francisco Prado is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Ismael Bonfim" if Ismael Bonfim is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francisco Prado at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Francisco Prado" if Francisco Prado is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Ismael Bonfim@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY Ismael Bonfim@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Ismael Bonfim@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Francisco Prado UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $5.4K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ismael Bonfim; negative values favor Francisco Prado. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIsmael Bonfim · $176.8K
6hIsmael Bonfim · $179.7K
24hIsmael Bonfim · $177.3K

Ismael Bonfim price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ismael Bonfim price. Francisco Prado fills are converted to the complementary Ismael Bonfim probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h38.2¢▼ below by 38.2pp
VWAP 7d38.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ismael Bonfim price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$5.3K
40¢
$212.6K
35¢
$386
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.0K
10¢
$0
5¢
$2.8K
0¢
← now
$12.6K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFrancisco Prado$14.3K@ 57.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYIsmael Bonfim$15.1K@ 42.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYIsmael Bonfim$93.3K@ 41.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYIsmael Bonfim$46.7K@ 40.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYIsmael Bonfim$11.7K@ 40.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketIsmael Bonfim$164.6K
BUY VWAP 40.7¢·4 fills
Elaran1993Ismael Bonfim$11.7K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.