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Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Mark Lajal vs Lucas Poullain

Sports→Settlement: Lucas PoullainLiquidity: $147.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $329.1KEvent: Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Mark Lajal vs Lucas Poullain
0.0¢
Mark Lajal payout
100.0¢
Lucas Poullain payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:136 trades$55.5K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 61 min agoofficial metadata 21 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mark Lajal · $167 net·12 wallets·$15.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMark Lajal$9.7K@ 46¢·xabidaking

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Lucas Poullain. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-05 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mark Lajal and Lucas Poullain in the Mouilleron-Le-Captif, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mark Lajal' if Mark Lajal advances against Lucas Poullain. This market will resolve to 'Lucas Poullain' if Lucas Poullain advances against Mark Lajal. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Mark Lajal DOWN 8.6pp · near-book depth $45 → $252 · 8s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mark Lajal; negative values favor Lucas Poullain. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMark Lajal · $1.6K
6hMark Lajal · $23.6K
24hMark Lajal · $23.6K

Mark Lajal price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mark Lajal price. Lucas Poullain fills are converted to the complementary Mark Lajal probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h45.1¢▼ below by 45.1pp
VWAP 7d45.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mark Lajal price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$4.1K
70¢
$4.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$139
55¢
$1.3K
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$22.5K
40¢
$3.1K
35¢
$4.0K
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$254
20¢
$378
15¢
$215
10¢
$3.6K
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
← now
$1.4K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseMark Lajal$12.4K
BUY VWAP 45.8¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.