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Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $567.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $687.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
100.0¢
Spirit
0.1¢
ShindeN
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:269 trades$343.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:ShindeN · $5.6K net·16 wallets·$53.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSpirit$136.0K@ 100¢·0xc74e…e725

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

ShindeN pressure: $17.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.4K
6h
+$34.7K
tracked
$343.6K

16 verified profitable wallets: ShindeN · $5.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +32.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 32.8pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from ShindeN or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against ShindeN.

•This market will resolve to "ShindeN" if ShindeN win the match against Spirit.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Spirit and ShindeN in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against ShindeN. This market will resolve to "ShindeN" if ShindeN win the match against Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 3, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc74e…e7252 linked markets · $158.1K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $68.3K gross
TommyLeePeeca3 linked markets · $45.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Spirit1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 67.2¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.4pp1h CONFIRMED +27.1pp
Latest book event: Spirit UP 4.6pp · near-book depth $1.4K → $222 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor ShindeN. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShindeN · $17.4K
6hSpirit · $34.7K
24hSpirit · $47.9K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. ShindeN fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h85.2¢▲ above by 14.8pp
VWAP 7d85.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$225.6K
90¢
$9.2K
85¢
$10.6K
80¢
$12.4K
75¢
$42.7K
70¢
$13.7K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$13.7K
55¢
$8.6K
50¢
$497
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLSpirit$136.0K@ 99.9¢0xc74e…e725🐋—3 minutes ago
SELLSpirit$26.6K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—7 minutes ago
BUYSpirit$10.1K@ 98.6¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYSpirit$10.0K@ 96.0¢
maxiforza0x018c…9794
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hSpirit$23.7K
BUY VWAP 97.7¢·9 fills
0xc74e…e725Spirit$19.9K
BUY VWAP 74.6¢·5 fills
maxiforzaSpirit$10.0K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.