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China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva

● quote 18s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $55.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $26.4KEvent: China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva
92.5¢
Elena Rybakina
7.5¢
Alina Charaeva
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$40.5K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alina Charaeva · $139 net·2 wallets·$139 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElena Rybakina$11.8K@ 94¢·KevinEasyMoney27

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$1
6h
+$40.3K
tracked
$40.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Alina Charaeva · $139 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 34 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Rybakina and Alina Charaeva in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Elena Rybakina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Elena Rybakina@ 95.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elena Rybakina; negative values favor Alina Charaeva. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElena Rybakina · $1
6hElena Rybakina · $40.3K
24hElena Rybakina · $40.3K

Elena Rybakina price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elena Rybakina price. Alina Charaeva fills are converted to the complementary Elena Rybakina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.5¢
VWAP 24h94.1¢▼ below by 1.6pp
VWAP 7d94.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elena Rybakina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$3.5K
90¢
← now
$37.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYElena Rybakina$10.7K@ 94.0¢
5551ab0xb7cb…e02f
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$11.8K@ 94.0¢
KevinEasyMoney270x55f5…e2a0
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5551abElena Rybakina$23.0K
BUY VWAP 94.2¢·5 fills
KevinEasyMoney27Elena Rybakina$11.8K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.