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Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10?

Sports→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.8MEvent: Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $67.5K net·14 wallets(2🐋)·$204.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$78.2K@ 90¢·curie

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Real Madrid CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 10, 2026 If Real Madrid CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
MinevaJ2 linked markets · $92.8K gross
curie2 linked markets · $85.9K gross
Flaznorp3 linked markets · $77.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES3d ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 85.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 29.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 29.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $12.3K
6hYES · $152.6K
24hYES · $173.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h81.8¢▲ above by 18.3pp
VWAP 7d81.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$137.2K
90¢
$126.7K
85¢
$109.5K
80¢
$36.9K
75¢
$12.9K
70¢
$348.3K
65¢
$7.2K
60¢
$29.2K
55¢
$6.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$13.0K@ 99.9¢
dupple-bot0x3137…556c
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$21.0K@ 99.9¢
Kidfp0x2e78…067e
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$30.4K@ 87.8¢
MinevaJ0x9e3a…e974
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$36.7K@ 28.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$16.6K@ 72.1¢
Lorolorota260x7998…4092
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$78.2K@ 90.0¢
curie0xd1ed…d7cb
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$34.3K@ 73.9¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$16.8K@ 73.0¢
Lorolorota260x7998…4092
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$11.7K@ 73.0¢
Anjun0x4337…8882
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 73.0¢
tes21sa0x20b8…aa04
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 73.0¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$43.9K@ 29.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$10.9K@ 29.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 73.0¢
1337zzz13370x7972…594f
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

curieYes$85.8K
BUY VWAP 88.6¢·10 fills
MinevaJYes$69.1K
BUY VWAP 87.6¢·11 fills
MiltonFriedmanHongKongNo$62.8K
BUY VWAP 29.0¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563No$36.7K
BUY VWAP 28.0¢·1 fill
kmak1Yes$34.3K
BUY VWAP 73.9¢·1 fill
GoalLineGhostYes$23.0K
BUY VWAP 76.2¢·8 fills
retarbYes$18.4K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·4 fills
Lorolorota26Yes$16.8K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
KidfpYes$14.6K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·3 fills
AnjunYes$11.7K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.