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Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $154.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $100.6KEvent: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
44.5¢
Chicago Cubs
55.5¢
San Diego Padres
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$36.7K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego Padres · $11.5K net·2 wallets·$11.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$7.3K@ 55¢·dv-pm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

San Diego Padres pressure: $11.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.5K
6h
−$15.7K
tracked
$36.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: San Diego Padres · $11.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 67

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from San Diego Padres or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 30 at 6:33AM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chicago Cubs; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Diego Padres · $11.5K
6hSan Diego Padres · $15.7K
24hSan Diego Padres · $27.0K

Chicago Cubs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chicago Cubs price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Chicago Cubs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h44.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d44.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chicago Cubs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$16.7K
40¢
← now
$20.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.