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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto

Sports→Settlement: Matteo ArnaldiLiquidity: $909.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $512.9KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto
100.0¢
Matteo Arnaldi payout
0.0¢
Rei Sakamoto payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:150 trades$198.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matteo Arnaldi · $27.8K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$78.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMatteo Arnaldi$20.4K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Matteo Arnaldi. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-07 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Rei Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Rei Sakamoto DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $2 → $33 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Arnaldi; negative values favor Rei Sakamoto. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRei Sakamoto · $20.7K
6hRei Sakamoto · $19.6K
24hRei Sakamoto · $20.9K

Matteo Arnaldi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Arnaldi price. Rei Sakamoto fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Arnaldi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h54.6¢▲ above by 45.4pp
VWAP 7d54.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matteo Arnaldi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$56.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$7
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$85
50¢
$32.8K
45¢
$39.3K
40¢
$15.8K
35¢
$224
30¢
$3.1K
25¢
$9.3K
20¢
$27.7K
15¢
$11.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMatteo Arnaldi$20.4K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatteo Arnaldi$10.3K@ 45.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRei Sakamoto$11.6K@ 50.0¢
useruserlol0x6c26…98b9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Matteo Arnaldi$29.2K
BUY VWAP 45.4¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesMatteo Arnaldi$13.3K
BUY VWAP 49.1¢·12 fills
useruserlolRei Sakamoto$11.6K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.