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Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm

● quote 51s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $80.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $453.6KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm
99.9¢
Arthur Fils
0.1¢
Martin Damm
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:124 trades$115.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 34s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Martin Damm · $28.1K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$28.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMartin Damm$18.9K@ 22¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Martin Damm pressure: $15.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.9K
6h
−$13.6K
tracked
$115.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: Martin Damm · $28.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -24.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Martin Damm or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Martin Damm in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Martin Damm. This market will resolve to 'Martin Damm' if Martin Damm advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Damm@ 25.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Fils2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +55.1pp
Latest book event: Martin Damm DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $107 → $3.5K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Martin Damm. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMartin Damm · $15.9K
6hMartin Damm · $13.6K
24hMartin Damm · $13.6K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Martin Damm fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h78.6¢▲ above by 21.3pp
VWAP 7d78.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$26.5K
90¢
$3.4K
85¢
$4.9K
80¢
$30.3K
75¢
$25.4K
70¢
$2.8K
65¢
$605
60¢
$10
55¢
$263
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
$13.9K
40¢
$5.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLArthur Fils$12.9K@ 99.9¢0x6982…a165🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Damm$18.9K@ 22.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Fils$17.0K@ 82.0¢0x20f4…15e1🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Martin Damm$27.8K
BUY VWAP 19.2¢·4 fills
0x20f4…15e1Arthur Fils$22.6K
BUY VWAP 81.8¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.