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China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $281.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $286.0KEvent: China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac
30.0¢
Yannick Hanfmann
70.0¢
Tomas Machac
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$95.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tomas Machac · $21.8K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$46.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTomas Machac$15.5K@ 67¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Tomas Machac pressure: $5.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.7K
6h
−$25.3K
tracked
$95.5K

5 verified profitable wallets: Tomas Machac · $21.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 73% · priority 53

Since latest large flow: -16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tomas Machac or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Tomas Machac in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yannick Hanfmann' if Yannick Hanfmann advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Yannick Hanfmann. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tomas Machac@ 88.0¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Tomas Machac@ 73.0¢8m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Yannick Hanfmann UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $33.3K → $487 · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Yannick Hanfmann; negative values favor Tomas Machac. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Machac · $5.7K
6hTomas Machac · $25.3K
24hTomas Machac · $25.3K

Yannick Hanfmann price VWAP

Volume-weighted Yannick Hanfmann price. Tomas Machac fills are converted to the complementary Yannick Hanfmann probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.0¢
VWAP 24h30.5¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d30.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Yannick Hanfmann price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.8K
50¢
$6.4K
45¢
$17.2K
40¢
$2.5K
35¢
$134
30¢
← now
$27.2K
25¢
$6.4K
20¢
$4.7K
15¢
$6.0K
10¢
$11.7K
5¢
$10.4K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTomas Machac$11.5K@ 70.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—9 minutes ago
BUYTomas Machac$15.5K@ 67.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—10 minutes ago
BUYTomas Machac$10.3K@ 53.4¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Tomas Machac$29.5K
BUY VWAP 68.6¢·3 fills
johnny234Tomas Machac$10.3K
BUY VWAP 53.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.