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Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Jaume Munar vs Marcos Giron

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $221.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $132.3KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Jaume Munar vs Marcos Giron
46.5¢
Jaume Munar
53.5¢
Marcos Giron
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$44.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarcos Giron$28.0K@ 41¢·HectorHuang

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$4
6h
−$20.9K
tracked
$44.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Marcos Giron · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 17.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jaume Munar and Marcos Giron in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if Jaume Munar advances against Marcos Giron. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if Marcos Giron advances against Jaume Munar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Marcos Giron@ 39.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Marcos Giron DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $45.7K → $55.6K · 63s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jaume Munar; negative values favor Marcos Giron. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJaume Munar · $4
6hMarcos Giron · $20.9K
24hMarcos Giron · $20.9K

Jaume Munar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jaume Munar price. Marcos Giron fills are converted to the complementary Jaume Munar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h58.2¢▼ below by 11.7pp
VWAP 7d58.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jaume Munar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.0K
70¢
$1.1K
65¢
$1.2K
60¢
$6.1K
55¢
$28.1K
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
← now
$1.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$327
30¢
$3.3K
25¢
$29
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarcos Giron$28.0K@ 40.7¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HectorHuangMarcos Giron$28.0K
BUY VWAP 40.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.