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Chengdu Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $1.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $731.1KEvent: Chengdu Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov
100.0¢
Hubert Hurkacz
0.1¢
Denis Shapovalov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:236 trades$329.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hubert Hurkacz · $495 net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$32.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDenis Shapovalov$30.5K@ 40¢·HectorHuang

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Denis Shapovalov pressure: $79.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$79.1K
6h
−$115.4K
tracked
$329.6K

14 verified profitable wallets: Hubert Hurkacz · $495 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -44.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Denis Shapovalov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov in the Chengdu Open, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Denis Shapovalov2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Denis Shapovalov2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Denis Shapovalov@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Denis Shapovalov@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
Latest book event: Hubert Hurkacz UP 12.5pp · near-book depth $140 → $10.0K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hubert Hurkacz; negative values favor Denis Shapovalov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDenis Shapovalov · $79.1K
6hDenis Shapovalov · $115.4K
24hDenis Shapovalov · $104.6K

Hubert Hurkacz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hubert Hurkacz price. Denis Shapovalov fills are converted to the complementary Hubert Hurkacz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h67.1¢▲ above by 32.9pp
VWAP 7d67.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hubert Hurkacz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$71.3K
90¢
$15.4K
85¢
$1.8K
80¢
$0
75¢
$6.3K
70¢
$37
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$110.1K
55¢
$67.9K
50¢
$25.9K
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$9.3K
25¢
$14.4K
20¢
$1.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLHubert Hurkacz$12.0K@ 99.9¢
RDXR0xc293…fac3
🐋—11 minutes ago
SELLHubert Hurkacz$11.7K@ 95.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$17.1K@ 41.6¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$18.8K@ 44.4¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$30.5K@ 39.8¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDenis Shapovalov$12.5K@ 39.0¢
LuigiUSA0x5081…fc2e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYHubert Hurkacz$12.6K@ 60.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HectorHuangDenis Shapovalov$30.5K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·1 fill
askilikaHubert Hurkacz$27.2K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·4 fills
0x760f…326aDenis Shapovalov$18.8K
BUY VWAP 44.4¢·1 fill
KkunnDenis Shapovalov$17.1K
BUY VWAP 41.6¢·1 fill
johnny234Hubert Hurkacz$12.6K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
LuigiUSADenis Shapovalov$12.5K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.