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Bari: Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin

Sports→Settlement: Federico ArnaboldiLiquidity: $237.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $448.5KEvent: Bari: Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin
100.0¢
Federico Arnaboldi payout
0.0¢
Svyatoslav Gulin payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:66 trades$246.5K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 22 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Svyatoslav Gulin · $1.9K net·4 wallets·$2.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFederico Arnaboldi$46.5K@ 80¢·0xe30e…6b87

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Federico Arnaboldi. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-05 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Arnaboldi and Svyatoslav Gulin in the Bari, Italy , Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Svyatoslav Gulin. This market will resolve to 'Svyatoslav Gulin' if Svyatoslav Gulin advances against Federico Arnaboldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Federico Arnaboldi@ 88.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Federico Arnaboldi1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Federico Arnaboldi1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Federico Arnaboldi1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Svyatoslav Gulin DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $25 → $28 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Federico Arnaboldi; negative values favor Svyatoslav Gulin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFederico Arnaboldi · $67.4K
6hFederico Arnaboldi · $194.8K
24hFederico Arnaboldi · $194.8K

Federico Arnaboldi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Federico Arnaboldi price. Svyatoslav Gulin fills are converted to the complementary Federico Arnaboldi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h80.5¢▲ above by 19.5pp
VWAP 7d80.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Federico Arnaboldi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.0K
90¢
$48
85¢
$2.5K
80¢
$130.0K
75¢
$55.0K
70¢
$36.4K
65¢
$470
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$107
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFederico Arnaboldi$15.1K@ 99.9¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$41.2K@ 81.4¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$46.5K@ 80.1¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$10.3K@ 82.4¢
lfjlwkflwekfl0xae95…17b8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$15.3K@ 79.0¢
lfjlwkflwekfl0xae95…17b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$14.8K@ 75.6¢
lfjlwkflwekfl0xae95…17b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$13.0K@ 80.6¢
lfjlwkflwekfl0xae95…17b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$18.8K@ 71.5¢
lfjlwkflwekfl0xae95…17b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFederico Arnaboldi$14.2K@ 70.4¢
lfjlwkflwekfl0xae95…17b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lfjlwkflwekflFederico Arnaboldi$125.2K
BUY VWAP 76.8¢·13 fills
0xe30e…6b87Federico Arnaboldi$87.7K
BUY VWAP 80.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.