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Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $8.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $113.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
68.5¢
Sinners
31.5¢
BET-M 33
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly86Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution62Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$45.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:BET-M 33 · $467 net·4 wallets·$555 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSinners$18.3K@ 61¢·skyman44

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$184
6h
+$40.4K
tracked
$45.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: BET-M 33 · $467 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Sinners" if Sinners win the match against BET-M 33.

•This market will resolve to "BET-M 33" if BET-M 33 win the match against Sinners.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Sinners and BET-M 33 in the NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Sinners" if Sinners win the match against BET-M 33. This market will resolve to "BET-M 33" if BET-M 33 win the match against Sinners. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 28, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sinners@ 62.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Sinners@ 62.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
Latest book event: BET-M 33 UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $91 → $99 · 54s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sinners; negative values favor BET-M 33. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBET-M 33 · $184
6hSinners · $40.4K
24hSinners · $40.4K

Sinners price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sinners price. BET-M 33 fills are converted to the complementary Sinners probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h60.1¢▲ above by 8.4pp
VWAP 7d60.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sinners price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$184
60¢
$43.2K
55¢
$172
50¢
$0
45¢
$377
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$60
30¢
$117
25¢
$46
20¢
$220
15¢
$0
10¢
$4
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSinners$18.3K@ 61.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSinners$16.4K@ 61.0¢
mimi1210x14af…ca2c
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

skyman44Sinners$18.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
mimi121Sinners$18.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.