Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $43.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $87.3KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4?

37.5¢

YES

62.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:21 trades$46.7K trackedsource coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 109 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$6.6K@ 80¢·0x06dc…4524

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$22

tracked

$46.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $87 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 109 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-05 04:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

justdance2 linked markets · $32.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 84.0¢9h ago

15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp6h INVALIDATED -44.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 84.0¢9h ago

15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp6h INVALIDATED -44.0pp

Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.8K → $6.1K · 56s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $22

24hYES · $46.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current37.5¢

VWAP 24h74.5¢▼ below by 37.0pp

VWAP 7d68.5¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

$87

80¢

$35.0K

75¢

70¢

$2.6K