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Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $36.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $56.3KEvent: Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC - More Markets
4.5¢
Liverpool FC
95.5¢
Manchester City FC
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$36.8K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 65%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 70 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYManchester City FC$22.5K@ 96¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$24.7K
tracked
$36.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Manchester City FC · $36.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 5 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 70 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Liverpool FC" if Liverpool FC win the game by 3 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Manchester City FC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for October 11 at 11:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Liverpool FC" if Liverpool FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Manchester City FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F622 linked markets · $64.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Manchester City FC@ 96.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liverpool FC; negative values favor Manchester City FC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiverpool FC · $0
6hManchester City FC · $24.7K
24hManchester City FC · $36.8K

Liverpool FC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liverpool FC price. Manchester City FC fills are converted to the complementary Liverpool FC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h4.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d4.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liverpool FC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$3.1K
0¢
← now
$33.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYManchester City FC$22.5K@ 96.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Manchester City FC$36.8K
BUY VWAP 95.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.