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LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $903.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $650.2KEvent: LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
0.1¢
Cloud9
100.0¢
LYON
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 24 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:270 trades$197.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LYON · $8.1K net·24 wallets·$65.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLYON$13.4K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cloud9 pressure: $31.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$31.4K
6h
+$17.1K
tracked
$197.1K

24 verified profitable wallets: LYON · $8.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cloud9 or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win Game 3 against LYON.

•This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win Game 3 against Cloud9.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Cloud9 and LYON in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win Game 3 against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win Game 3 against Cloud9. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c5 linked markets · $97.3K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $93.1K gross
fhiwbijd5 linked markets · $85.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: LYON UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $484 → $1.1K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cloud9; negative values favor LYON. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCloud9 · $31.4K
6hCloud9 · $17.1K
24hCloud9 · $17.1K

Cloud9 price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cloud9 price. LYON fills are converted to the complementary Cloud9 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h25.9¢▼ below by 25.9pp
VWAP 7d25.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cloud9 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.3K
50¢
$17.2K
45¢
$4.4K
40¢
$36.9K
35¢
$49.7K
30¢
$2.4K
25¢
$4.7K
20¢
$3.9K
15¢
$6.4K
10¢
$1.3K
5¢
$1.9K
0¢
← now
$65.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLYON$13.4K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYLYON$12.0K@ 98.8¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—37 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
18.5¢$982.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$932.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$479.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 4 Winner
41.5¢$159.2Kpriority35Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
43.5¢$1.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
32.5¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Packers vs. Buccaneers
60.5¢$494.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Colts vs. Commanders
66.5¢$446.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fkcvffcjtLYON$23.0K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·10 fills
fhiwbijdCloud9$15.8K
BUY VWAP 35.4¢·6 fills
5e46hLYON$12.0K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.