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China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $81.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $61.6KEvent: China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic
29.5¢
Nuno Borges
70.5¢
Novak Djokovic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly17Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$28.2K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Novak Djokovic · $13.1K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$23.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNovak Djokovic$12.6K@ 69¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$140
6h
−$18.2K
tracked
$28.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Novak Djokovic · $13.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 63 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Novak Djokovic in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Novak Djokovic. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Nuno Borges. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Novak Djokovic@ 71.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuno Borges; negative values favor Novak Djokovic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNuno Borges · $140
6hNovak Djokovic · $18.2K
24hNovak Djokovic · $11.4K

Nuno Borges price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuno Borges price. Novak Djokovic fills are converted to the complementary Nuno Borges probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h31.2¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d31.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuno Borges price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$28.2K
25¢
← now
$23
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNovak Djokovic$12.6K@ 69.1¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Novak Djokovic$17.3K
BUY VWAP 69.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.