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China Open: Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $210.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $429.1KEvent: China Open: Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez
91.0¢
Juncheng Shang
9.0¢
Sebastian Baez
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:165 trades$155.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sebastian Baez · $6.5K net·17 wallets·$23.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuncheng Shang$13.5K@ 53¢·xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Juncheng Shang pressure: $1.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.7K
6h
+$9.9K
tracked
$155.7K

17 verified profitable wallets: Sebastian Baez · $6.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 85% · priority 49

Since latest large flow: +46.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 46.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Juncheng Shang or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juncheng Shang and Sebastian Baez in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juncheng Shang' if Juncheng Shang advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Juncheng Shang. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Juncheng Shang46m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Juncheng Shang@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Sebastian Baez@ 55.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp
Latest book event: Sebastian Baez DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $12.1K → $125 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juncheng Shang; negative values favor Sebastian Baez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJuncheng Shang · $1.7K
6hJuncheng Shang · $9.9K
24hJuncheng Shang · $19.9K

Juncheng Shang price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juncheng Shang price. Sebastian Baez fills are converted to the complementary Juncheng Shang probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current91.0¢
VWAP 24h50.4¢▲ above by 40.6pp
VWAP 7d50.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juncheng Shang price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$507
70¢
$24
65¢
$1.8K
60¢
$2.7K
55¢
$42.1K
50¢
$42.4K
45¢
$40.3K
40¢
$11.5K
35¢
$13.0K
30¢
$11
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJuncheng Shang$13.5K@ 53.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJuncheng Shang$12.3K@ 58.0¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseSebastian Baez$22.4K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·20 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseJuncheng Shang$22.3K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·2 fills
jtwyslljyJuncheng Shang$14.4K
BUY VWAP 46.8¢·4 fills
askilikaJuncheng Shang$12.3K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
0x760f…326aJuncheng Shang$12.0K
BUY VWAP 45.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.