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San Diego State vs. Oregon State

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $42.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $325.3KEvent: San Diego State vs. Oregon State
0.5¢
San Diego State
99.5¢
Oregon State
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$112.6K tracked36% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 67 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Oregon State · $8.3K net·2 wallets(2🐋)·$73.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOregon State$40.6K@ 85¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$45.0K
tracked
$112.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Oregon State · $8.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +14.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 67 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 14.9pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Oregon State" if Oregon State win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Oregon State, scheduled for October 10 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game. This market will resolve to "Oregon State" if Oregon State win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $36.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Oregon State1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Oregon State1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Oregon State@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Oregon State@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.1pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Diego State; negative values favor Oregon State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Diego State · $0
6hOregon State · $45.0K
24hOregon State · $45.0K

San Diego State price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Diego State price. Oregon State fills are converted to the complementary San Diego State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h15.0¢▼ below by 14.5pp
VWAP 7d15.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Diego State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$111.9K
10¢
$1.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$5

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego State$32.3K@ 15.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOregon State$40.6K@ 85.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOregon State$13.0K@ 85.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOregon State$21.3K@ 85.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Oregon State$40.6K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill
quavooOregon State$36.5K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·3 fills
Talvez10San Diego State$32.3K
BUY VWAP 15.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.