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Spread: North Dakota State (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 38 minutesLiquidity: $265.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.6KEvent: North Dakota State vs. UNLV
26.0¢
North Dakota State
74.0¢
UNLV
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$22.0K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorth Dakota State$22.0K@ 52¢·Kosherlocks

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$40
6h
+$22.0K
tracked
$22.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: UNLV · $3 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "North Dakota State" if North Dakota State win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 10 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Dakota State" if North Dakota State win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1winstreak13 linked markets · $193 gross
TinaGoat2 linked markets · $20 gross
0x276b…f3812 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: North Dakota State UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $2 → $272 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor North Dakota State; negative values favor UNLV. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUNLV · $40
6hNorth Dakota State · $22.0K
24hNorth Dakota State · $22.0K

North Dakota State price VWAP

Volume-weighted North Dakota State price. UNLV fills are converted to the complementary North Dakota State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.0¢
VWAP 24h52.3¢▼ below by 26.3pp
VWAP 7d52.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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North Dakota State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$24.0K
45¢
$3
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$40
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNorth Dakota State$22.0K@ 52.4¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KosherlocksNorth Dakota State$22.0K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.