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Spread: Notre Dame (-21.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 25 minutesLiquidity: $204.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $23.5KEvent: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
28.0¢
Notre Dame
72.0¢
North Carolina
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$32.1K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Notre Dame · $31.5K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$32.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNotre Dame$19.8K@ 49¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Notre Dame pressure: $3.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.2K
6h
+$31.6K
tracked
$32.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: Notre Dame · $31.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Notre Dame or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game by 22 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "North Carolina".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game by 22 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "North Carolina". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $33.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Notre Dame@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Notre Dame; negative values favor North Carolina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNotre Dame · $3.2K
6hNotre Dame · $31.6K
24hNotre Dame · $31.6K

Notre Dame price VWAP

Volume-weighted Notre Dame price. North Carolina fills are converted to the complementary Notre Dame probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.0¢
VWAP 24h48.4¢▼ below by 20.4pp
VWAP 7d48.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Notre Dame price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$150
45¢
$32.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNotre Dame$19.8K@ 48.9¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempNotre Dame$19.8K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.