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Asian Games Men: India vs Sri Lanka

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $46.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $109.6KEvent: Asian Games Men: India vs Sri Lanka
91.0¢
India
9.0¢
Sri Lanka
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$14.4K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sri Lanka · $71 net·2 wallets·$6.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIndia$4.0K@ 91¢·blket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Sri Lanka pressure: $4.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.3K
6h
+$5.6K
tracked
$14.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Sri Lanka · $71 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Sri Lanka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.espncricinfo.com/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between India and Sri Lanka scheduled for October 1 2026 at 12:30 AM ET in Asian Games Men. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: India DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $5.9K → $100 · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor India; negative values favor Sri Lanka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSri Lanka · $4.3K
6hIndia · $5.6K
24hIndia · $5.6K

India price VWAP

Volume-weighted India price. Sri Lanka fills are converted to the complementary India probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current91.0¢
VWAP 24h87.8¢▲ above by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d87.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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India price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$5.8K
85¢
$4.4K
80¢
$4.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.