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China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $282.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $175.4KEvent: China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta
90.5¢
Daniil Medvedev
9.5¢
Pablo Carreno Busta
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$60.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $2.8K net·6 wallets·$7.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$12.4K@ 82¢·coinlaundry

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $7.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.3K
6h
+$38.2K
tracked
$60.1K

6 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $2.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 9.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Pablo Carreno Busta DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $9.7K → $4.5K · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Pablo Carreno Busta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $7.3K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $38.2K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $43.9K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Pablo Carreno Busta fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current90.5¢
VWAP 24h83.3¢▲ above by 7.2pp
VWAP 7d83.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$5.0K
85¢
$440
80¢
$56.7K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Medvedev$12.4K@ 82.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coinlaundryDaniil Medvedev$21.7K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.