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LoL: RED Canids vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage

Sports→Settlement: RED CanidsLiquidity: $385.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $654.2KEvent: LoL: RED Canids vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
100.0¢
RED Canids payout
0.0¢
Natus Vincere payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:339 trades$240.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 83 min agoofficial metadata 51 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $22.3K net·20 wallets(1🐋)·$44.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRED Canids$21.2K@ 100¢·0xd016…6114

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome RED Canids. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "RED Canids" if RED Canids win the match against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against RED Canids.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 1 match between RED Canids and Natus Vincere in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "RED Canids" if RED Canids win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against RED Canids. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY RED Canids@ 96.0¢4h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 62.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -57.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: RED Canids UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $163 → $623 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor RED Canids; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $4.3K
6hNatus Vincere · $136.6K
24hNatus Vincere · $135.5K

RED Canids price VWAP

Volume-weighted RED Canids price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary RED Canids probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.8¢▲ above by 34.2pp
VWAP 7d65.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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RED Canids price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$119.2K
90¢
$5.1K
85¢
$1.7K
80¢
$660
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.9K
60¢
$7.3K
55¢
$4.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$18.9K
35¢
$4.4K
30¢
$433
25¢
$49
20¢
$30.6K
15¢
$44.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLRED Canids$10.3K@ 99.9¢
aomendushen0080xd3f1…7535
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLRED Canids$12.8K@ 99.9¢0xe2d0…7bbf🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLRED Canids$21.2K@ 99.9¢0xd016…6114🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLRED Canids$13.7K@ 99.9¢
NrNrfNrf20xf70f…3c97
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYRED Canids$11.5K@ 99.0¢0xd016…6114🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

gvrgb326552g65Natus Vincere$16.5K
BUY VWAP 58.7¢·5 fills
0xd016…6114RED Canids$11.5K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
five5120Natus Vincere$10.0K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.