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Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1?

● quote just now
Crypto→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $38.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $98.9KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1?
56.5¢
Up
43.5¢
Down
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly62Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:61 trades$5.6K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Down · $3.0K net·3 wallets·$3.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown$1.5K@ 70¢·0x06dc…4524

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$47
6h
−$2.3K
tracked
$5.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: Down · $3.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 1 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 1 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Down DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $4.6K → $4.4K · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDown · $47
6hDown · $2.3K
24hDown · $4.0K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h28.4¢▲ above by 28.1pp
VWAP 7d28.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$50
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$398
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$225
20¢
$571
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.