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China Open: Harriet Dart vs Yihan Qu

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $44.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.8KEvent: China Open: Harriet Dart vs Yihan Qu
70.7¢
Harriet Dart
29.3¢
Yihan Qu
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:98 trades$40.0K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 46s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Harriet Dart · $24.2K net·13 wallets·$26.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHarriet Dart$5.5K@ 95¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$189
6h
+$25.5K
tracked
$40.0K

13 verified profitable wallets: Harriet Dart · $24.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Harriet Dart and Yihan Qu in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harriet Dart' if Harriet Dart advances against Yihan Qu. This market will resolve to 'Yihan Qu' if Yihan Qu advances against Harriet Dart. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Harriet Dart UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $10.7K → $3.2K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Harriet Dart; negative values favor Yihan Qu. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHarriet Dart · $189
6hHarriet Dart · $25.5K
24hHarriet Dart · $25.5K

Harriet Dart price VWAP

Volume-weighted Harriet Dart price. Yihan Qu fills are converted to the complementary Harriet Dart probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.7¢
VWAP 24h86.6¢▼ below by 15.9pp
VWAP 7d86.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Harriet Dart price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$18.2K
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$7.1K
80¢
$129
75¢
$3.5K
70¢
← now
$1.8K
65¢
$5.3K
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesHarriet Dart$14.8K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·18 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.