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China Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Naomi Osaka

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $239.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $648.3KEvent: China Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Naomi Osaka
3.5¢
Maria Timofeeva
96.5¢
Naomi Osaka
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:178 trades$207.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Naomi Osaka · $26.2K net·16 wallets·$57.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNaomi Osaka$18.2K@ 91¢·coinlaundry

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Naomi Osaka pressure: $50.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$50.7K
6h
−$68.6K
tracked
$207.1K

16 verified profitable wallets: Naomi Osaka · $26.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +11.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.5pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Naomi Osaka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Timofeeva and Naomi Osaka in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Timofeeva' if Maria Timofeeva advances against Naomi Osaka. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Maria Timofeeva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Naomi Osaka18m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Naomi Osaka@ 85.5¢27m ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.7pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Naomi Osaka@ 92.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.8pp
Latest book event: Maria Timofeeva DOWN 4.3pp · near-book depth $31.3K → $17.8K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maria Timofeeva; negative values favor Naomi Osaka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNaomi Osaka · $50.7K
6hNaomi Osaka · $68.6K
24hNaomi Osaka · $68.6K

Maria Timofeeva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maria Timofeeva price. Naomi Osaka fills are converted to the complementary Maria Timofeeva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.5¢
VWAP 24h17.9¢▼ below by 14.4pp
VWAP 7d17.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maria Timofeeva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.8K
40¢
$4.1K
35¢
$14.5K
30¢
$43.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$21.1K
15¢
$4.5K
10¢
$25.1K
5¢
$56.3K
0¢
← now
$35.3K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNaomi Osaka$11.1K@ 98.2¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$10.0K@ 92.2¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYMaria Timofeeva$15.0K@ 33.2¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$18.2K@ 91.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coinlaundryNaomi Osaka$34.9K
BUY VWAP 89.5¢·5 fills
hd777Naomi Osaka$18.7K
BUY VWAP 98.5¢·3 fills
0x78be…bde0Maria Timofeeva$15.0K
BUY VWAP 33.2¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardNaomi Osaka$12.4K
BUY VWAP 80.7¢·4 fills
AGUGavaMaria Timofeeva$11.4K
BUY VWAP 15.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.