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Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?

● quote just now
Crypto→Closes: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $31.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $83.7KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?
89.5¢
Up
10.5¢
Down
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$14.8K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Up · $6.3K net·3 wallets·$6.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUp$4.7K@ 70¢·easyclap

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Up SETUP
What the tape says

Up pressure: $2.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.3K
6h
+$1.7K
tracked
$14.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: Up · $6.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 69

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Up or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-02 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUp · $2.3K
6hUp · $1.7K
24hUp · $2.7K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h72.3¢▲ above by 17.2pp
VWAP 7d72.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$2.3K
80¢
$664
75¢
$101
70¢
$9.7K
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.