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China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $130.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $314.8KEvent: China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens
45.3¢
Katie Volynets
54.8¢
Elise Mertens
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection36Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority79Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:109 trades$115.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 48 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elise Mertens · $19.4K net·13 wallets·$25.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKatie Volynets$39.1K@ 36¢·Eztennis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Elise Mertens pressure: $19.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.5K
6h
−$29.8K
tracked
$115.9K

13 verified profitable wallets: Elise Mertens · $19.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 79

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 48 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Elise Mertens or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Volynets and Elise Mertens in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Volynets' if Katie Volynets advances against Elise Mertens. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Katie Volynets. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Katie Volynets@ 40.3¢22m ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.4pp
Latest book event: Katie Volynets UP 2.9pp · near-book depth $40.4K → $13.8K · 19s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Katie Volynets; negative values favor Elise Mertens. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElise Mertens · $19.5K
6hElise Mertens · $29.8K
24hElise Mertens · $34.8K

Katie Volynets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Katie Volynets price. Elise Mertens fills are converted to the complementary Katie Volynets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.3¢
VWAP 24h26.9¢▲ above by 18.4pp
VWAP 7d26.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Katie Volynets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$24.8K
40¢
$594
35¢
$43.6K
30¢
$1.8K
25¢
$8.3K
20¢
$1.8K
15¢
$7.2K
10¢
$7.3K
5¢
$2.3K
0¢
$18.1K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKatie Volynets$39.1K@ 36.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋—25 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

EztennisKatie Volynets$43.4K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·2 fills
0x0cdf…ec9eElise Mertens$14.9K
BUY VWAP 53.7¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesElise Mertens$13.7K
BUY VWAP 82.7¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.