PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $323.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $389.7KEvent: China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys
57.5¢
Alex de Minaur
42.5¢
Quentin Halys
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:166 trades$187.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 61%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Quentin Halys · $36.5K net·15 wallets·$71.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur$18.9K@ 65¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Quentin Halys pressure: $38.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$38.0K
6h
−$36.0K
tracked
$187.3K

15 verified profitable wallets: Quentin Halys · $36.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 70

Since latest large flow: -25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 50 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Quentin Halys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Quentin Halys in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Quentin Halys24m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Quentin Halys@ 68.0¢39m ago
15m INVALIDATED -36.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Quentin Halys51m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Quentin Halys@ 83.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -43.0pp
Latest book event: Quentin Halys DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $495 → $33.6K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Quentin Halys. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hQuentin Halys · $38.0K
6hQuentin Halys · $36.0K
24hQuentin Halys · $23.9K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Quentin Halys fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h34.5¢▲ above by 23.0pp
VWAP 7d34.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$22.9K
65¢
$25.8K
60¢
$8.4K
55¢
← now
$3.2K
50¢
$15.6K
45¢
$10.5K
40¢
$12.7K
35¢
$975
30¢
$111
25¢
$11.2K
20¢
$16.8K
15¢
$10.7K
10¢
$45.9K
5¢
$2.6K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex de Minaur$18.9K@ 65.5¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYQuentin Halys$13.3K@ 89.0¢
Arcus-AI0x1fb7…fb66
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$12.1K@ 73.0¢
Vps10xb2d2…3910
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C
52.5¢$481.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
China Open: Donna Vekic vs Lin Zhu
39.4¢$438.6Kpriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$428.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
42.5¢$382.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens
3.3¢$314.8Kpriority79Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$307.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$305.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooAlex de Minaur$30.1K
BUY VWAP 64.8¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesQuentin Halys$26.9K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·13 fills
HomeRunHazardQuentin Halys$18.9K
BUY VWAP 73.9¢·4 fills
Arcus-AIQuentin Halys$16.2K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·3 fills
Vps1Alex de Minaur$12.1K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.