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China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula Badosa

● quote 8 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $698.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $560.3KEvent: China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula Badosa
99.9¢
Jelena Ostapenko
0.1¢
Paula Badosa
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:182 trades$242.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Paula Badosa · $11.9K net·16 wallets(2🐋)·$90.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJelena Ostapenko$35.6K@ 100¢·Eztennis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Paula Badosa pressure: $67.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$67.7K
6h
−$71.2K
tracked
$242.7K

16 verified profitable wallets: Paula Badosa · $11.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +34.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 34.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Paula Badosa or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jelena Ostapenko and Paula Badosa in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jelena Ostapenko' if Jelena Ostapenko advances against Paula Badosa. This market will resolve to 'Paula Badosa' if Paula Badosa advances against Jelena Ostapenko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jelena Ostapenko@ 66.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Jelena Ostapenko1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Jelena Ostapenko@ 68.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Paula Badosa DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $19 → $35 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jelena Ostapenko; negative values favor Paula Badosa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPaula Badosa · $67.7K
6hPaula Badosa · $71.2K
24hPaula Badosa · $71.2K

Jelena Ostapenko price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jelena Ostapenko price. Paula Badosa fills are converted to the complementary Jelena Ostapenko probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h69.3¢▲ above by 30.6pp
VWAP 7d69.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Jelena Ostapenko price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$61.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.8K
80¢
$13.9K
75¢
$5.2K
70¢
$15.5K
65¢
$24.6K
60¢
$30.9K
55¢
$37.1K
50¢
$18.4K
45¢
$1.8K
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$5.6K
30¢
$15.0K
25¢
$6.1K
20¢
$2.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJelena Ostapenko$18.2K@ 99.9¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋—29 minutes ago
SELLJelena Ostapenko$35.6K@ 99.9¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYJelena Ostapenko$18.2K@ 66.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJelena Ostapenko$22.2K@ 63.5¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPaula Badosa$16.8K@ 44.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPaula Badosa$13.2K@ 44.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPaula Badosa$13.2K@ 66.1¢
AGUGava0x0353…c2ff
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooJelena Ostapenko$22.2K
BUY VWAP 63.5¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Jelena Ostapenko$18.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
KatalunygeaxvhjPaula Badosa$16.9K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·3 fills
AGUGavaPaula Badosa$16.8K
BUY VWAP 67.3¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Paula Badosa$16.8K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Paula Badosa$13.2K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.