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China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $129.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $523.7KEvent: China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea
75.5¢
Hubert Hurkacz
24.5¢
Arthur Gea
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:156 trades$199.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hubert Hurkacz · $9.3K net·12 wallets·$79.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Gea$15.0K@ 51¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Hubert Hurkacz pressure: $18.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.2K
6h
−$4.4K
tracked
$199.8K

12 verified profitable wallets: Hubert Hurkacz · $9.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 48

Since latest large flow: -24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hubert Hurkacz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Arthur Gea in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Gea@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Arthur Gea@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
Latest book event: Hubert Hurkacz DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $74.1K → $39.9K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hubert Hurkacz; negative values favor Arthur Gea. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHubert Hurkacz · $18.2K
6hArthur Gea · $4.4K
24hArthur Gea · $3.4K

Hubert Hurkacz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hubert Hurkacz price. Arthur Gea fills are converted to the complementary Hubert Hurkacz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current75.5¢
VWAP 24h56.7¢▲ above by 18.8pp
VWAP 7d56.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hubert Hurkacz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$7.3K
75¢
← now
$18.4K
70¢
$9.7K
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$44.4K
50¢
$33.6K
45¢
$78.7K
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Gea$15.0K@ 50.6¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$15.0K@ 52.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHubert Hurkacz$10.1K@ 57.5¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Arthur Gea$30.0K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesHubert Hurkacz$19.5K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·10 fills
xabidakingHubert Hurkacz$18.6K
BUY VWAP 54.7¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesArthur Gea$15.4K
BUY VWAP 42.4¢·10 fills
1234162Arthur Gea$11.0K
BUY VWAP 43.3¢·3 fills
0x0cdf…ec9eHubert Hurkacz$10.1K
BUY VWAP 57.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.