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Bari: Matthew William Donald vs Martin Krumich

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $450.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $585.4KEvent: Bari: Matthew William Donald vs Martin Krumich
100.0¢
Matthew William Donald
0.1¢
Martin Krumich
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 20 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:214 trades$196.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matthew William Donald · $16.6K net·20 wallets·$61.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMartin Krumich$15.4K@ 48¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Martin Krumich pressure: $9.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.1K
6h
−$10.0K
tracked
$196.5K

20 verified profitable wallets: Matthew William Donald · $16.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -29.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Martin Krumich or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matthew William Donald and Martin Krumich in the Bari, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Martin Krumich. This market will resolve to 'Martin Krumich' if Martin Krumich advances against Matthew William Donald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Matthew William Donald44m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPSELL Matthew William Donald@ 70.0¢47m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Krumich@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -31.0pp
Latest book event: Matthew William Donald DOWN 9.5pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $630 · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matthew William Donald; negative values favor Martin Krumich. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMartin Krumich · $9.1K
6hMartin Krumich · $10.0K
24hMartin Krumich · $10.0K

Matthew William Donald price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matthew William Donald price. Martin Krumich fills are converted to the complementary Matthew William Donald probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h48.4¢▲ above by 51.5pp
VWAP 7d48.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Matthew William Donald price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.1K
90¢
$15
85¢
$5.0K
80¢
$7.9K
75¢
$6.8K
70¢
$16.4K
65¢
$2.2K
60¢
$5.4K
55¢
$7.1K
50¢
$18.6K
45¢
$4.7K
40¢
$19.1K
35¢
$18.8K
30¢
$31.6K
25¢
$32.6K
20¢
$7.4K
15¢
$2.8K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMatthew William Donald$10.1K@ 99.9¢
vladiva0xa50f…8e6f
🐋—28 minutes ago
SELLMatthew William Donald$13.3K@ 72.2¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatthew William Donald$10.1K@ 43.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Krumich$15.4K@ 48.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLMartin Krumich$11.4K@ 69.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLMartin Krumich$14.6K@ 65.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Matthew William Donald$19.5K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·5 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseMartin Krumich$19.2K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·5 fills
0x78be…bde0Martin Krumich$15.4K
BUY VWAP 48.1¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesMatthew William Donald$14.4K
BUY VWAP 54.4¢·20 fills
ferrariChampions2026Martin Krumich$11.9K
BUY VWAP 62.1¢·6 fills
LuzzzerMatthew William Donald$10.1K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.