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UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

Sports→Combat SportsSettlement: VOIDLiquidity: $624.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $831.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
50.0¢
Melissa Gatto payout
50.0¢
Ernesta Kareckaite payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:147 trades$347.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 22 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Melissa Gatto · $17.6K net·13 wallets·$52.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMelissa Gatto$59.4K@ 54¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market void. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

VOID

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
VOID
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Melissa Gatto@ 51.0¢51m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Melissa Gatto1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Melissa Gatto1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Melissa Gatto1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Melissa Gatto DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $141 → $428 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market void · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.void

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Melissa Gatto; negative values favor Ernesta Kareckaite. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMelissa Gatto · $12.8K
6hMelissa Gatto · $237.6K
24hMelissa Gatto · $243.0K

Melissa Gatto price VWAP

Volume-weighted Melissa Gatto price. Ernesta Kareckaite fills are converted to the complementary Melissa Gatto probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h53.9¢▼ below by 3.9pp
VWAP 7d53.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Melissa Gatto price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$18.3K
70¢
$6.2K
65¢
$11
60¢
$83
55¢
$18.4K
50¢
← now
$296.5K
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$10
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$637
20¢
$9.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMelissa Gatto$21.4K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$59.4K@ 54.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$51.6K@ 54.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$53.4K@ 54.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$22.9K@ 53.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketMelissa Gatto$205.4K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Melissa Gatto$14.3K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.