PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?

Politics→Closes: about 19 hoursLiquidity: $24.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.3KEvent: What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)
20.9¢
YES
79.1¢
NO
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:44 trades$47.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $5.4K net·4 wallets·$5.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$13.0K@ 72¢·Bertapotamous

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
DISPUTED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $1.7K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.3K
6hNO · $27.6K
24hNO · $30.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.9¢
VWAP 24h26.6¢▼ below by 5.7pp
VWAP 7d26.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.9K
35¢
$2.3K
30¢
$3.4K
25¢
$16.5K
20¢
← now
$14.5K
15¢
$2.8K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$2.4K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$13.0K@ 72.3¢
Bertapotamous0x134a…9e42
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$948.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1¢$681.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$620.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
0.9¢$528.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
5.3¢$433.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BertapotamousNo$19.2K
BUY VWAP 71.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.